Our Accuracy Record
Every pick we publish is settled here in public, win or lose. If the number is unimpressive, it stays up anyway — that is the whole point.
This page exists so you never have to take our word for anything. Every prediction we publish gets settled against the official result and recorded below, including the ones that went badly. We do not delete losing picks, we do not restate a pick after kick-off, and we do not quote a hit rate that this table does not produce.
No Kenyan tipster service we are aware of shows you this. That absence is not an oversight on their part.
No settled picks yet — the record starts empty
We have just launched, so there is nothing here yet. We are showing you the empty table rather than waiting to publish this page once the numbers look good, because a record that only appears after a good run is not a record.
The first entries will appear as soon as our first published slip settles.
How to read this honestly
A hit rate is a measure of our analysis. It is not a projection of your bankroll, and the distinction matters more than most betting content admits.
Profit depends on the price you took, not merely on being right. A service that is correct 60% of the time on heavy favourites at 1.20 loses money steadily. A service correct 40% of the time at 3.50 makes it. When you see any tipster quoting a hit rate with no reference to odds, they are showing you the flattering half of the picture.
A small sample also means very little. A run of ten correct picks is entirely ordinary luck and proves nothing about a method — which is precisely the run that every WhatsApp tipster screenshots. Wait for the number to be built on a few hundred settled picks before you give it any weight, including ours.
What we count and what we void
- Every pick published on a Natybet prediction page is settled here. We do not curate.
- Picks are graded on the official full-time result for the stated market.
- Postponed or abandoned matches are marked void and excluded from the percentage — not deleted.
- A published pick is never edited after kick-off. If we got it wrong, the wrong version stays up with the reasoning that produced it.
And the standing caveat
None of this makes betting a sensible way to make money. Bookmakers price with a built-in margin, and the long-run expectation for players as a group is negative — that is not cynicism, it is how the business is able to exist at all. We publish analysis because people are going to bet regardless and deserve something better than “guaranteed” slips sold on Telegram, not because we think we have found a way to beat the house.
If betting has stopped being entertainment for you, our responsible gambling page lists free, confidential help you can reach from Kenya.
Frequently asked questions
Why does a betting site publish its losses?
Because a hit rate you cannot check is worth nothing. Any site can claim 90% accuracy; almost none will show you the settled picks that produce the number. Publishing the losses is the only thing that makes the wins mean anything.
What hit rate should I actually expect?
Honest football analysis lands somewhere in the region of a coin flip to modestly better, depending on the market. A 1X2 pick has three outcomes, so being right half the time is already meaningful. Anyone advertising 90%+ on 1X2 selections is either counting only their wins or making it up.
How do you settle a pick?
On the official full-time result for the market stated, with no retrospective editing. If a match is postponed or abandoned the pick is marked void and excluded from the percentage rather than quietly deleted.
Does a good hit rate mean I will make money?
No, and this is the most important thing on the page. Profit depends on the odds you took, not just how often you were right. Being correct 60% of the time at short odds can lose money, while 40% at generous odds can make it. Hit rate is a measure of our analysis, not a promise about your bankroll.
Can I see the reasoning behind old picks?
Every pick is published with its reasoning on the relevant prediction page at the time it goes up. That is deliberate: it means a pick cannot be quietly rationalised after the fact.